I think the Apple iPhone will be a Raging Success. Not because of Apple's hype. Not because of the Jobs RDF. But because it is advertised by its interface. Because the interface is straight out of science fiction. (That would be the happy shiny world of tomorrow type of science fiction, not the dark dystopian type.)
Most importantly I think the iPhone will be a success because my six year old son is excited about a phone.
"Daddy, it comes with pirates."
"Daddy, to make the picture big, you pinch out -- like this."
"Daddy, can we get one?"
(No. I'm not buying a $500 phone for myself let alone a six year old. But there will be enough people buying version 1.0 that Apple will be able to build an iPhone platform.)